Actual hiring activity moved lower. The share of owners hiring or trying to hire fell 5 percentage points to 51%. At the same time, 26% of owners identified labor quality or availability as their single most important problem, while only 6% identified labor cost as the top problem.

Those figures describe a labor market that is not collapsing. They describe one that is hesitating. Small businesses still want qualified workers. They are simply less willing to act before they have more clarity on costs, demand and the political environment according to some analyst.

A 17% hiring plan is a standstill, not a collapse

The NFIB’s net hiring-plan figure measures the share of owners planning to create jobs minus the share planning to reduce employment. A net reading of 17% means more owners intend to add workers than cut them.

That is positive. It is not strong. In addition, despite the numbers, if you read the accounts of many Americans across the country, and actually talk to people, the statistics and numbers do not always tell the whole story.

The important fact is that the figure did not change from August. Hiring intentions neither accelerated nor deteriorated. Owners preserved their plans, but did not expand them.

That is why the number is better described as a standstill. The margin remains positive, but it is thin relative to a stronger expansion cycle. Businesses are not broadly announcing layoffs. They are also not committing to a major wave of new hiring.

The distinction matters for anyone tracking small business hiring. A collapse would show up as a net figure moving sharply toward zero or into negative territory. September did not produce that result. Instead, it showed a continuation of cautious, limited expansion. With that stated, the economy is fluid, and innovation, policy, and other factors can change the country’s economic trajectory in either direction.

Plans stayed flat while hiring activity fell

The sharpest signal in the report is the gap between what owners say they plan to do and what they actually did.

The net share planning to create jobs remained at 17%. But the share hiring or trying to hire fell from 56% to 51%.

That gap is what uncertainty looks like in real time.

Owners may still believe they will need additional workers over the next several months. They are not necessarily willing to open the recruiting process, make offers or add payroll today. The intention remains. The trigger has been pulled less often.

This distinction also explains why job seekers may see fewer openings even when business owners say they expect to hire. A business can have a future staffing need without posting a position immediately. It can delay a replacement, combine responsibilities or ask existing employees to work additional hours.

For entrepreneurs, that is a defensive posture. For workers, it produces a confusing market: fewer active opportunities, longer hiring timelines and more competition for jobs that are posted.

The constraint shifted from price to supply

Labor cost as the most important problem fell to 6%, its lowest reading since 2020. That may appear to be an unambiguous improvement. It is not.

Lower concern about labor cost can mean wage pressure is easing because employers have found a sustainable way to recruit and retain people. It can also mean demand for workers is softening. When fewer businesses compete aggressively for new employees, wage pressure may decline even though qualified workers remain difficult to find.

The September data point toward the second possibility, or at least warn against assuming the first.

Labor quality or availability remained the dominant problem for 26% of owners. That means the central obstacle is not simply the price of labor. It is the supply of people with the skills, reliability and experience needed to perform the work.

The market is therefore split:

• Employers are less focused on the cost of hiring.
• Employers remain concerned about finding qualified applicants.
• Fewer owners are actively hiring or trying to hire.
• Future job-creation plans remain positive but unchanged.

The binding constraint shifted from price to supply. The problem is not solved because wage anxiety is lower.

What the midterm election has, and has not, established

The phrase “wait out the midterms” describes a reported business sentiment. It does not establish a measurable economic mechanism.

Secondary coverage, including reporting from Finimize and AL Politics, connects small-business caution to elevated operating costs and uncertainty ahead of the November midterm elections.

That connection must be stated carefully. Owners may report that election uncertainty is affecting expansion decisions. That does not conclusively prove that the election caused the decline in hiring activity.

Businesses can delay hiring because of tax concerns, regulatory questions, weak sales forecasts, financing costs or ordinary seasonal caution. The NFIB survey records what owners report. It does not isolate one cause through a controlled experiment.

The fair conclusion is narrower: election uncertainty is one reported reason for caution, and it may be reinforcing a broader wait-and-see posture. The data do not prove that it is the sole or primary cause of the slowdown.

The national economy provides a weak backdrop

The broader labor market also softened in September. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report, the U.S. economy added only 29,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.

That is a low-growth environment for employers and workers. It does not indicate mass job destruction. It indicates that job creation has become limited and uneven.

The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00%. Market-implied odds of an October rate increase fell to approximately 17%, although that figure reflects financial-market pricing rather than an official Federal Reserve forecast. The Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy materials provide the governing rate and policy context.

Higher borrowing costs can make owners more cautious about adding payroll, purchasing equipment or opening another location. A business that expects demand to improve may still delay expansion if the financing required to support that expansion is expensive.

The result is a low-hire, low-fire environment. Unemployment can remain relatively stable while mobility declines. Workers keep their existing jobs, but fewer people change employers. New entrants face a more difficult search. Employers preserve headcount but leave positions unfilled.

What the report means for job seekers

Job seekers should expect a slower process, fewer openings and less wage leverage in some industries.

New entrants may face the greatest difficulty because employers can become more selective when applications increase and hiring urgency declines. A candidate with no documented work history may be screened out even if the underlying labor shortage has not disappeared.

Workers can respond by making their value easier to verify:

1. Document measurable results. Track revenue influenced, time saved, customers retained, errors reduced or projects completed.
2. Keep professional networks active. A hiring freeze does not eliminate referrals. It makes informal relationships more important.
3. Build skills that address the supply problem. Technical competence, customer communication, reliability and the ability to work independently remain valuable.
4. Negotiate from stability. Leaving a current job for a thin market can create unnecessary risk. Workers should assess the full compensation package and the employer’s financial condition before moving.

The goal is not to accept every offer. It is to become easier for a cautious employer to justify hiring.

In addition, alternative forms of employment, multiple income streams, and joining a startup or starting a business could be great opportunities depending on your circumstances. Gig work and side jobs can be a great way to supplement your income when needed. Joining a startup that aligns with your career goals and path might be a great option depending on the case. Starting a business, depending on your drive, expertise, business experience, and business model, could be a great transition during the current economic downturn. Startups and starting a business come with a high risk, so both employees and founders beware; however, they offer some of the best opportunities for wage growth. For those who like to create, build, and be “hands-on” when it comes to business, joining a startup gives you that opportunity, and starting a business puts you in the driver’s seat.

As our economy changes, Americans will have to adjust..

What the report means for small-business owners

Owners face a difficult choice. Qualified workers are scarce, but aggressive wage bidding may not fit current revenue.

The practical response is to compete on more than pay:

• Offer schedule flexibility where the role allows it.
• Create a clear advancement path instead of presenting the job as an undefined position.
• Invest in training so a capable applicant can become productive faster.
• Shorten the offer timeline. Qualified candidates often leave slow hiring processes.
• Improve retention before expanding recruitment. Keeping a trained employee is usually less disruptive than replacing one.
• Use automation selectively. Automate repetitive administrative work, but do not treat software as a substitute for judgment, customer relationships or accountable management.

A small employer does not always need to outbid a national company. It may be able to offer faster decisions, direct access to management, broader responsibility and a more predictable work environment.

Those advantages must be stated clearly. Applicants cannot value benefits they cannot see.

The economic risk is lost mobility

The most important consequence may not be a sudden rise in unemployment. It may be a decline in movement through the labor market.

A low-hire, low-fire economy can keep unemployment relatively stable while reducing opportunity. Workers stay in place because they cannot find better alternatives. Businesses hold positions open because they cannot find qualified people. New graduates and career changers wait longer for entry points.

That condition can conceal weakness beneath a stable headline unemployment rate.

The NFIB report shows that small-business hiring is not dead. It is constrained, selective and vulnerable to additional uncertainty. The 17% hiring-plan figure remains positive. The 51% active-hiring figure shows that fewer owners are acting now. The 26% labor-quality figure confirms that the supply of qualified workers remains a problem.

Those facts can coexist.

For more financial education and small-business coverage, readers can visit Why Main Street and its news section.

Why Main Street is a member-owned social media and financial-education platform. It is not a bank, financial institution, broker-dealer or financial adviser. Its articles are for general informational and educational purposes only. Why Main Street does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of third-party data and is not responsible for employment, business or financial decisions made from this article.

Sources

• NFIB, September 2026 Jobs Report
• NFIB, Monthly Jobs Report
• Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 2026 Employment Situation
• Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy
• Finimize, Small Businesses Say Hiring Is Easing, Not Easy
• AL Politics, Small-Business Hiring Slows in September, NFIB Says